Rasmussen's had McCain ahead for the last couple of months:

http://www.pollster.com/08-NV-Pres-GE-Mv O.php

I don't think I have ever seen him ahead.  Nevada is a red state trending purple.  

Even if his numbers stay the same, its ONE more Bush state McCain must defend.  The more states this is competitive for us, the more Obama's money advantage will help.

Isn't it interesting that the farther west you go, the better Obama does in rural areas?  He dominated Oregon's farm country....

This is a big argument among NV democrats and has been since 04. Some follow Reid's logic, that to win the state you have to do better in the rurals and the Las Vegas suburbs which have trended sharply D in the past 2 years.

Others point out that while we've lost the state 3 times since 05 by <25k votes (00 & 04 presidential, 06 gov), we've had relatively poor turnout (<60%) in high performing Democratic areas of Clark, meaning we can pick up 50-100K votes if we devote resources to registering, contacting, educating and mobilizing areas that are heavily lower income white, african-american and hispanic in central, eastern and North Las Vegas. The state party has generally resisted this because those areas are already solidly Dem downballot, whereas the swing seats in the state assembly, state Senate and Congress are elsewhere.

Obama's win in the rural counties in the caucus seems to me no basis at all to argue for trying to win the state in the rurals. You aren't going to gain much by trying to boost Dem turnout in the GE there, since you already get 80% or better in most of the rural counties. IN fact, I expect we'll see lower turnout there this Nov since Bush and then Gibbons in 06 pulled out conservative voters like never before in those counties.

The natural place for OBama to work is Clark where most of the gains in Dem registration have come since 06. In the swing districts of CD3, where the Congressional seat is eminently winnable with Dina Titus on the ballot, and with multiple Assembly seats plus the key Senate seat, he might be able to do what Dems could not do in 06 which is bring across enough independents.

But where I think Obama can make the biggest difference in turning NV blue is in the democratic heartland of CD1. Thats where his kind of campaign -- heavily invested in field organizing, heavy mobilizing of african-american voters, heavy mobilization of new voters or those with poor voting histories in the past -- thats where we've left far too many votes on the table in the past few elections. If he can move those areas to 65 or 70 % turnout, thats 40 to 50 K Democratic votes.

The recession HAS hit Vegas very hard already. We may be one of the last cities to feel economic hardship but we sure have been feeling it for the past 6 months or so.