New memo from Nevada state democratic party (pdf), published by Jon Ralston fo the Las Vegas Sun shows Democrats now hold an advantage statewide of nearly 35,000 voters over Republicans (compared with with a deficit of 5000 voters at the 2006 election.)

This surge, which has been building since 2004, accelerated greatly in the final months of 2007 and reached the tipping point on caucus day in January (when Democrats gained over 10K new registrations and Republicans lost nearly 5000K).

These figures are highly significant, because dating back to 2000, Democrats have lost three statewide elections (Presidential in 2000 and 2004; Gubernatorial in 2006) by fewer than 25,000 votes.

Moreover, its impact is most evident in the highly competitive 3rd Congressional District, where Republican incumbent and George Bush rubber stamp Jon Porter narrowly held his seat in 2006, winning with 48%, and a margin of fewer than 4000 votes (against a little-known, first-time candidate who entered the race in February.) The district, once solidly republican, now has a 20,000 Democratic voter registration advantage.

Good news for Demcoratic challenger Robert Daskas, who has been campaigning full time since last year.

The new registration figures have also erased Republican margins of several thousand voters in the two most competitive state Senate districts (5 and 6), of which the Democrats need to pick up only one to take a majority.

The party memo concludes that, given this registration advantage, and even assuming "No Party" (independent) registrants vote in the same proportions and with the same breakdown as in 2004, only 27.4% of the new registrants need to turn out and vote Democratic to swing the state to blue in this year's presidential race, and in CD3, only 11% need to turn out and vote Democratic to swing the seat to Daskas.