Nevada Caucus morning
Good morning. NV caucus sites open in a few hours so here's once more a few quick hits from the ground. No predictions, no secrets, consider this a "Johnny Apple mood" piece, MyDD-style.
Spent most of yesterday making turnout calls and dropping lit for Edwards. Frustratingly high number of people, and not just Edwards supporters (though thats to whom I'm talking most) say they will not attend, due to last minute illness, change in work schedules, or even one (non-Edwards) voter said she could no longer attend as planned because she'd be taking delivery of a new La-Z-Boy Saturday at noon. Minus one point for democracy.
Only hard news -- some last minute confusion, some deliberate some not. On the conference call last night for temp pct chairs, the NDSP caucus director said that distribution of lit would be allowed in the caucus sites, contradicting what had been told to us at prior trainings. On the follow-up confirmation call from an NSDP staffer, I asked him to check and the answer came back, no in fact lit distribution in caucus sites would not be allowed. Looks like it'll be up to temp pct chairs to decide.
More last minute confusion, according to the LV Sun, The Democratic Party has confirmed that some voters received calls deliberately providing false information about their caucus site and time. . I know nothing more about these calls.
Last night while making last-minute deliveries of lit and stickers to pct captains, I drove by the Culinary compound in central Las Vegas. They had rows of camper vans lined up, for their habitual full bus arrivals at the polls. The only question is whether they will be able to be as effective at turnout for a caucus, because they don't have the advantage of all day (or a 2 week early vote) to maximize their organizational strength.
Made my own lit drops this am in my nbhd, of my final brochures, policy books, and policy papers. Surprisingly, still no sign of the kind of systematic Clinton or Obama sweeps I had expected. Saw some Obama door-knockers in trash cans, which had been left yesterday, but the only lit in my pcts that will be doorsteps this morning, apparently, will be Edwards.
I do not believe entrance polls are being taken. Results should be posted here starting about 12:30 PST (3:30 eastern), which should be -- if it all works right -- a real-time display of the results being phoned into an automated system by precinct chairs. Expect smaller, lower-delegate and more rural precincts to start to report first -- and its anybody's guess who will prevail there: Edwards on rural issues and background, Clinton on name ID and party establishment support, or Obama who has boasted all campaign long of his dozen or so offices across the state and most staffers (I'd bet against the third and am hoping for the first).
I'd expect Obama's strongest precincts to report late -- the largely AFrican-American precincts on the west side of Las Vegas are among the largest in terms of delegates (though some very large ones in very suburban areas where new development has wreaked havoc with precinct voter densities), and of course the infamous at-large precincts will be likely to report towards the end just based on their size. So if Obama holds his own in the first third to half of precincts to report, he could likely to be in good shape for a strong late close.
AFter its all over, I'll tell you how it went, and share some local color from my final days of phone banking and canvassing.
Good luck to everyone in Nevada.
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