Update from central Las Vegas frontlines
Sorry to step on Todd's story about the poll but wanted to leave you with an update on how it looks from my little corner of the Nevada campaign.
I've felt all along that Obama's strength is too concentrated to put him on top unless all the supporters of other candidates broke against Hillary. That hasn't happened. Thats in part because she has absorbed some of the other campaigns -- hiring the Biden state director (and taking over the Biden office), hiring Richardson staffers, and getting a lot more help in the last 2 weeks than she got previously from AFSCME in terms of mail, phones, etc.
Whats astonishing to me is that I haven't seen much evidence of a Culinary field presence, at least in my precincts --- which are pretty heavy with CUlinary membership. Maybe its at work or on the phones, but usually their field presence at this point in an election is very evident.
Just got back from my morning lit drop -- I've been leaving the Edwards policy book and flyer beside the morning papers on driveways of democratic households -- and still don't see very much lit from either of the other campaigns on doorsteps, which I usually would the day before an election. In fact, the only flyer in the gutter was one of my own, which must have blown away yesterday.
I'd say the poll -- while unlikely to be very good as a survey -- is a good reflection of the distribution of support in my own precinct. I'll have to get all my people out and hold them to be viable. (Thats a bitter pill to swollow after all this time but thats how elections go.) My district has a lot of lower-income appartments that I have not canvassed heavily; if those folks turn out, which is where Culinary's turnout machine can really matter, that could completely change the math, and he'd win it big.
But in another neighboring precinct, if our supporters come out and hold for Edwards, we should win it.
Two other precincts in my district are very competitive due to digilent field work by precinct captains, though the lack of Edwards visibility may hurt us in terms of turnout and late deciding habitual voters.
One of the things I'm interested to see on Saturday is if in fact local volunteers are qualitativley better than out of state or paid staff. IN other words, all the precincts I've noted above have been worked for us by local volunteers in their own nbhds. The Obama and Clinton pcs seem to have worked only their own blocks, judging by the distribution of early supporters. But in the last 2 weeks, they've had the benefit of massive tv and radio advertising, intensive mailing, live and recorded calls from call centers, visibility in terms of yard signs, and more staff and volunteers from allied groups in from out of state. I'm hoping that the advantage of a local contact might be felt in our final rounds of calls and contacts that we began last night.
A final problem I'm encountering which is a part of every campaign but really frustrating in a caucus -- last minute losses of precinct captains and firm supporters. Illness, family emergencies, last-minute trips, or in one or two cases, simple irresponsibility have meant we may not be represented very strongly in some precincts where we do have a good # of supporters. I don't know if the other cmapaigns are having the same problems.
Some good news for us -- big story in today's Sun on Edwards as the "forgotten candidate" and good tv coverage yesterday of all the events.
Off now to the last Edwards rally and then a final day of voter contact.
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