Come on up for the Rising: Edwards at Carpenter's Hall in Las Vegas

John Edwards held a townhall-style event at the United Brotherhood of Carpenters local 1977 tonight that felt a lot like a revival meeting, a revival of America. And for those who believe, it felt like a revival of his campaign.

At the end of a day-long blitz of events across the state, including appearances in Elko, Reno and Las Vegas, this event was originally intended to be a q/a with undecided voters. Scheduled at the same time as the very-popular Paradise Democratic Club dinner and held at a location distant from the main freeways, there was concern about whether turnout would be poor and would feed media stories about the campaign being in decline. I have to confess I shared these concerns and accepted to volunteer to help out, in part to help paper the house in case of a thin crowd.

As it turned out, the crowd was packed far beyond capacity, spilling out of the main room into the entrance vestibule and out the door. Newspaper reports put it at 500 but the reporters in the press gallery couldn't see the entrance area or the crowd outside the door.

The event is what I imagine it felt like the in the final days of Iowa -- a crowd fervent, even frenzied at times, with enthusiasm; a candidate rushing through his stump speech to get to questions; and a skeptical press wondering why all of this excitement surrounding a campaign that is supposed to be in its final days.

The campaign got some good news yesterday when the Nevada Democratic Outdoor Caucus chairman, noting that Edwards was the only candidate in the race to respond to the group's questionnaire, urged its members to caucus for Edwards and to volunteer to help in their precincts. This is a potentially very significant development, because the rural counties have not been very heavily targeted or very thoroughly organized by any campaign -- and because the roughly 15% of Democrats who live outside Washoe and Clark could hold the balance if its a close race in the larger counties. (As in Iowa, caucus math rewards breadth of support, so that the lower voter to delegate ratios in rural counties makes each supporter that much more valuable.)

The local coverage of the debate helped Edwards tremendously. While the Sun editorialized that Clinton had performed the best and the RJ endorsed Obama, Edwards got the most attention on local tv news -- largely because he represented such a novelty, previously left out of much local coverage. Hence Edwards claim at the event that "last night, Nevada voters found out there were  not two but three candidates for President."

After an abbreviated version of the stump speech, focusing on his approach to economic hardship and shorn of the anecdotes of individuals that are Edwards' stock in trade, he took questions. The questions came from a range of Steelworkers, Carpenters, teachers, veterans, and a 7-year old boy who literally asked him he would "save the world." The questions concerned the high price of gas, carbon emissions, the loss of jobs in the industrial midwest, inadequate body armour being procured by the DoD, social security, primary school literacy, Afghanistan, and, from a Steelworker, what question he had intended to ask Sen Clinton at the debate before being interrupted by Bryan Williams.

The question, he explained, would have been whether she would join him in pledging that if elected President, he not to have any corporate lobbyists serve in the White House.

His responses, as during the debate last night, highlighted his differences from the other two candidates -- his opposition to expanding NAFTA and his desire to change the focus of trade policy generally, his opposition to new nuclear power plants (on the same day that Sen Clinton said she does not oppose a nuclear waste repository; she just would not locate it in Yucca), his opposition to coal-burning plants until carbon-sequestration technology is in place, and his commitment to end combat operations and not to build permanent bases in Iraq.

As I walked around the room handing out policy booklets, I tried to focus on talking issues with undecideds and with supporters to make sure they knew their precinct location. In a few cases, I took address and email info to verify caucus location and get back to the voters. As I've written already, turning out supporters is going to be the key to each campaign's success Saturday. I was pleased to find a voter from my district who was there in an Edwards t-shirt, but whom I had not identified previously. A brief conversation on the phone just afterwards explained why -- she and her daughter are strong supporters, but our precinct captain had not canvassed their house because it had a Hillary sign out front. Put there by another family member. A reminder of the important dictum, "signs don't vote. People do."

On his way out, Edwards was approached by dozens of workers from the two major unions backing his campaign, Steelworkers and Carpenters, who thanked him for speaking on their behalf. That was pretty powerful, to see a politician being thanked by people for addressing real issues.

Tomorrow, he's got another couple of events and as of this evening, a Friday morning rally has been added to his schedule. And as importantly, tomorrow we enter the final 48 hours to caucus, the final push to turn out supporters.

I'm still not very optimistic about Edwards' chances, due to the simple reality of the big media campaigns being waged by his opponents. But I'm using the fact this is a campaign that is running on message and grassroots activism alone, to close with leaners. If Clinton wins, the message will be that the party establishment won. If Obama wins, the message will be that the unions are in fact as powerful as everyone thought.

But if Edwards does better than expected, if he's competitive despite being wildly outspent in this state, it'll mean only one thing -- that in Nevada, and in every subsequent primary state, the Democratic party, the press, and the electorate is going to have a real set of issues to address. The primary is going to go national one week after NV, and its clear at this point that if its a two candidate race, it'll be tit-for-tit exchanges about who said what about whom, and about who's breaking which rules.

If NV caucus goers stand up for Edwards, and if he hits his viability thresholds so that his supporters can win him delegates (more on what I expect to happen inside the caucus rooms tomorrow), then the primary will look like what we saw at the debate -- a clear and focused discussion of issues. After having set the agenda all year with his policy proposals, Edwards has in the last few weeks, even without winning a state, set the rhetorical agenda. Now Obama and Clinton are also denouncing "lobbyists" and "special interests" (by my count, a total of 7 times between them) and also promising to fight for the middle class.  



Display:


Questions (2.00 / 2)

This was an outstanding diary. Thanks very much for your account of the event. It sounds like Edwards took a lot of questions!

I was wondering if you get the feeling out in Nevada that the unions behind Edwards are really supporting him and will probably have higher turnout as a % than the ones supporting Obama? It seems like Obama's were kind of forced from the top, while the ones that endorsed Edwards really wanted him as a whole. I don't know much about unions or Nevada, but it just seemed that it might cause low turnout in the Culinary Union? Though I guess at the same time culinary and seiu have a lot of members, compared to the ones Edwards got, so who knows.


by Progressive America on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 04:02:52 AM EST

Re: Questions (2.00 / 2)

The ARG poll (for what it's worth) showed Edwars leading with union households.

Thanks for you hard work and the great diary desmoulins.


by MassEyesandEars on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 10:30:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Come on up for the Rising: Edwards at Carpente (2.00 / 1)

Hillary and Obama have both taken a lot from Edwards' message, both from 2004 and this campaign. I remember hearing Hillary once talk about having the Katrina czar at a debate in basically the same words, many months after Edwards had proposed the idea. Edwards was the first to also talk about "change," but the media always credits the idea to Obama.

As far as middle class goes, it doesn't matter if you say it. If you vote for trade deals, like Peru or Singapore or support NAFTA, then you're not supporting the middle class.


by Progressive America on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 04:22:00 AM EST

Re: Come on up for the Rising: Edwards at Carpente (2.00 / 1)

Yeah, but now we're losing jobs because of NAFTA. What was the gains of the 90s is partially the loss of this decade.

We need another increase in the minimum wage to $9.50. We need to put an end to these unfair trade agreements which help corporations only. Job goes overseas, same goods come back here, and the corporation keeps the extra profit, while the middle class loses the jobs. That's not helping the middle class, sorry.

Trade agreements are one of the many causes of the growing inquality in America. I think John Edwards takes that very seriously and will stand up to the corporations who wrote the WTO Laws and every other trade agreement.


by Progressive America on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 04:51:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Come on up for the Rising: Edwards at Carpente (none / 0)

I would also add many factors helped the 90s economy, including the increase in the minimum wage and investment in new technology.


by Progressive America on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 04:52:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Come on up for the Rising: Edwards at Carpente (2.00 / 1)

Sure, free trade gives some advantages, but we should be very careful about it in the future and should consider mandating foreign minimum wage requirements, tougher labor laws, environmental laws, etc... to make sure it's not just big corporations taking advantage of us and foreign workers for their own benefit.

It's not just Bush.

We need to take a deeper look at the WTO and make sure Most Favored Nation and National Treatment do not have overriding authority over environmental and labor laws. Time and time again the WTO Court rules against the interests of the people and the welfare of animals (in many cases leading to their deaths) for the sake of aiding corporations. For example, because of the Shrimp/Sea Turtle Case, possibly 13,000 sea turtles died as a result of the ruling. The Court said the US law wasn't fair because of different treatment. This would have been the same thing if it was an unfair labor situation. So basically what you have is a pro-business court ruling over environmental and labor affairs. That's exactly what we don't need. They put their interests over others and we need to end it.


by Progressive America on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 05:22:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Come on up for the Rising: Edwards at Carpente (2.00 / 1)

Shrimp/turtle case
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/c ase1.shtml
by Progressive America on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 05:22:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Come on up for the Rising: Edwards at Carpente (none / 0)

Keep dreaming Gladiatorstail.  Your apologetics for the Clintons is tiresome.  Capital will always seek surplus labor in its quest for greater profits.  That's an economic law that William Jefferson Clinton was obviously intelligent enough to grasp when he pushed the religion of free trade.  He sacrificed working people in this country and abroad for the interests of the few.  That's exactly what your darling Hillary will do as well if is the President.  How do you think she will confront the likes of Humana and other health insurance companies who reap collassal profits at the expense of our national well-being, given the fact that she is on the take more than any other democratic candidate.  Maybe your just a staffer for Hillary and you don't really believe what your posting?  The alternative is that you are blind.


When I gave food to the poor they called me a Saint. When I asked why the poor were hungry they called me a communist.- Dom Helder Camera
by kentuckydave on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 08:17:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Come on up for the Rising: Edwards at Carpente (none / 0)

I have to disagree because we're going to probably have more Republican Presidents in the future that will do the same thing as Bush. We don't need to make trade agreements that are going to allow corrupt multi-national businesses take advantage of our country and workers in developing countries either. No one wins with the kind of trade that's being pushed except these big corporations. We need a halt to trade, period. Unfortunately both Hillary and Obama voted for the Peru trade deal, giving Bush more authority on our trade.


by Progressive America on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 08:30:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Come on up for the Rising: Edwards at Carpente (none / 0)

Let me know when BILL Clinton runs again.  Kthankx


by DrFrankLives on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 10:49:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Nice Article from RGJ (2.00 / 2)

Big turnout and got a lot of substantive issues in there too.

http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/articl e?AID=/20080116/NEWS18/80116055&oaso =news.rgj.com%2Fbreakingnews


by Progressive America on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 05:10:37 AM EST

Re: Edwards at Carpenter's Hall in Las Vegas (none / 0)

It seems to me that the expectations for Edwards are so low in Nevada that even second place would be a boost for him.  A win would set many mouths agape, and would almost certainly be a factor in SC.


Take out the trash. Down with Saxby Chambliss!
by CLLGADEM on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 05:25:39 AM EST

Re: Edwards at Carpenter's Hall in Las Vegas (none / 0)

I actually think Clinton might win and Obama could even finish third. I think Edwards may have started this last bit of Nevada campaigning a little late though and may need another week, but I hope not. I think his campaign was caught by surprise with the recent polls and maybe shouldn't have spent so much time and money in South Carolina, but maybe it even worked out well with the surge in local media coverage on his arrival just when people are paying attention. So who knows.

With this big fight at the end, it's hard to say how things are going. From the news I've been reading, it also seems Culinary isn't so much behind Obama as the 60,000 worker endorsement would sound. I also wonder if the teacher lawsuit might hurt the Clinton campaign. And I could see the racial issues hurting both of their campaigns. So with all that, I could see Edwards being helped, as he's pretty much avoided the negativity. He also hit those energy, lobbyist, and labor issues pretty big in the debate, so it gives a good reason for people to favor him if they are seeing too much negativity in the others.

Really this Nevada race could go any way and the polling is probably too difficult to do.


by Progressive America on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 06:11:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama and Reagan (2.00 / 3)

I haven't read enough analysis about Obama's comment to make a definitive conclusion. But tactically I can't see a better way to drive union support to Edwards than Obama praising Reagan. What the hell was he thinking?

There is a diary at dKos that has drawn 1500 comments and as of this minute 303 recommends Why Obama's Comment Stings My Soul . Clearly this is resonating among people of a certain age. It is one thing to suggest that Boomers are the problem, to go beyond that to suggest that Reagan was the solution is a couple of steps too far. Praising union busting Reagan three days before a union dominated caucus is just full out stupid.

I have not fully committed to Edwards simply because I didn't think he had a chance. To which I have to say 'Thank you Obama'. Because this can not only help Edwards in Nevada it might reverberate in South Carolina. Somehow I doubt many blacks in South Carolina have shrines set up to honor St. Ronnie.

Obama was a young man in the 1980's, maybe he thought Family Ties was a documentary, but for those of us who actually lived out the Reagan years both when he was governor and latter president these are close to fighting words.


PollKatz: Bush Approval in 15 polls
by Bruce Webb on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 09:12:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama and Reagan (none / 0)

I don't know about that...

My parents - a pipefitter and one-time board member of Local 172 (now retired) and a teacher that was always proud to be part of the Indiana Federation of Teachers - voted 'Reagan' in 1984 - and did so quite loudly and vocally.

Anecdote to be sure, but I'm not so sure it's the wedge  --- especially among blue collar folks --- that some seem to think it is.


by zonk on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 09:59:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama and Reagan (none / 0)

lol.. now OIbama folks forced to defend Reagan. Yees, this is why this guy will never carry majority of Dem voters.


by StrongDem08 on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 10:31:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama and Reagan (none / 0)

Despite already doing so in the IA caucuses...


by zonk on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 10:34:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama and Reagan (none / 0)

Well, I mean plurality... but still... Obama drew a higher % of IA Dems than either Edwards or Clinton.

But by all means, Pauline Kaels of the world, keep finding yourself shocked!


by zonk on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 10:39:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Edwards at Carpenter's Hall in Las Vegas (2.00 / 1)

Morning headlines say Obama and Clinton are in a big fight. I'm just hoping voters say forget all this negativity and go with Edwards, the progressive choice for unions anyway!

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2008/jan 17/democrats-back-battle


by Progressive America on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 06:36:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Since the original thread slid way over... (2.00 / 2)

I'll say it here.

Anyone from either the Obama or Clinton camps that would try to argue they somehow have as much claim to "champion of the middle class" as Edwards is fooling themselves.  I'm an Obama supporter - but that simply has not been the theme Obama has built his campaign around.

I DO think it's important that we remember about both Obama and Clinton -- just because they're not the "best" - doesn't mean they're either unacceptable, or even anything less than "good".

But... the fact is - Edwards has woven his entire campaign around economic themes, limiting corporate power in all its forms, and defending the middle class and working America.

Having been raised middle class, by a union pipefitter and union teacher - and now being middle class myself decades later, Edwards' campaign certainly resonated with me.   Ultimately - I decided to back Obama, but it certainly wasn't because I thought Obama was somehow "more of" or "as powerful" an advocate for the middle class as Edwards.

I've got nothing but love and respect Edwards and the campaign he has run... any other cycle, I can't see how I would lined up behind anyone else.


by zonk on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 08:49:55 AM EST

I loved those town-hall meetings (2.00 / 3)

He fields questions so well, and the energy in the room is amazing.

Thanks for the write-up.


John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."
by desmoinesdem on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 10:11:07 AM EST

The media blackout on Edwards (2.00 / 1)

Will it matter if he places second in Nevada? The Iowa narrative was all about Obama and Hillary.

I've learned almost everything I know about the candidates on the blogs. I read everything I have time to read. But this is not the case for most Americans. They watch TV and fewer read the papers, and that's where they read all about Obama and Clinton. It's very frustrating. He's saying everything that matters, but no one gets to hear him.

Look at the study from the Center for Excellence in Journalism. Just see the chart. It's pretty stark.

http://www.journalism.org/node/9266


by MissyH on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 10:25:07 AM EST

I "hope" (none / 0)

Edwards hits a home run in Nevada! I would not be a pessimistic as you state near the end.


Washington Woman
theocracywatch.org
EENR Blog
by kevin22262 on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 11:14:16 AM EST

I wish he had run ads there (none / 0)

and sent out a few of those direct-mail pieces.

I think they became very pessimistic after it became clear that the unions would come out for Obama. Now they've got an opening, but it would help if he were up on the air in nevada.


John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."
by desmoinesdem on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 12:22:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Agreed (none / 0)

Viability must be conveyed. Edwards' team should have had a dedicated strategy (not simply words in a speech) in place in Nevada to fight the MSM's efforts to marginalize him.

My sense is that Edwards could very well eke out a win in Reno/Washoe, plus rural Nevada, but that Vegas/Clark (1000 of 1700 precincts...yipes) will be tough. Edwards will need full force Carpenter's Union turnout, and support, to have a ghost of a chance in Nevada.

If Clinton gets full force Teachers Union support, she could win it.  The Sun endorsement is also a big plus.

The wild card in Nevada is Obama's turnout team.  They proved in Iowa that they could turn out their new, starry-eyed supporters.  In traditionally low turnout Nevada, this will be MUCH harder for them. The Obama team's "Be a Democrat for a Day" flyer, suggested to me an understandable frustration at finding caucus goers. I've worked the Nevada caucuses a few times. It can be very frustrating to find actual caucus goers. This year, of course, it's supposed to be different. We shall see.


by Demo37 on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 01:01:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I wish he had run ads there (none / 0)

He did run ads there


Washington Woman
theocracywatch.org
EENR Blog
by kevin22262 on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 04:22:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I wish he had run ads there (none / 0)

Not in Las Vegas, Maybe up in Reno?


by desmoulins on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 12:47:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Come on up for the Rising: Edwards at Carpente (none / 0)

What they are saying

http://www.lasvegassun.com/

in the Reno paper big Edwards article
http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/frontp age

(This same has Leahy endorsing Obama...)


"If you want to end war and stuff, you gotta sing loud"...Arlo Guthrie
by nogo war on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 11:28:28 AM EST


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