First, the debate. I thought it was a great success and washed away the bitter taste of last November's debacle. Before it started, Brian Williams made a plea to the audience to remain silent and startingly, it worked (except for the cheers Obama got for a line that truly deserved it, "they all voted for me.") The crowd was smaller and it was a theater rather than a converted gymnasium, which helped, but mostly I think it was simply better run than the CNN fiasco. And nearly every Democrat I spoke to felt the same way.

Another tidbit about the debate that Edwards supporters can be proud of. In the area for "campaign guests," the Clinton rows were full of state elected officials and local politicos; the Obama rows included a variety of politicos, local celebrities (including Andre Agassi and Steffi Graff, though not clear if they are actually supporting Obama) and volunteers; and the Edwards rows were some electeds who are supporting John, some local volunteers, and most evidently, two or three rows of Steelworkers. Sitting in the middle of them was David Bonior. (On the way out, I told one of the Steelworkers how impressed I am with their effort -- many traveled from other states at their own expense -- and she responded "we're a proud union." (Another cool thing, the "Woman of Steel" buttons that a lot of the female Steelworkers wore.)  

Secondly, the suit. By now most everyone expects that the judge will not take action and the damage to the credibility of the process will be minimal. Still, its left people pretty angry, and yesterday one officer of the Clark County executive board resigned in protest of the board's support for the suit. The more immediate effect, of discouraging people from attending, may have been done -- I've heard from several casino workers that the rumor in the breakrooms is that the at-large precincts, or even the entire caucus, is going to be cancelled. (One rumor attributed the suit to "the people in South Carolina" who wanted to be able to be more influential!) Point being, its hard to put the genie back in the bottle and say its all going smoothly. By the way, the hearing has been moved up to 9am tomorrow (PST).

Third, the turnout enigma. In addition to the reasons I've written about earlier as to why I'm still expecting relatively low turnout (below 60,000, or less than 10% of registered Dems), there are more localized factors. One is that this winter has been a weak one for the resort industry (ie, casinos and hotels) so that many of those who work based on tips (bartenders, waiters, dealers) may not be eager to sign out for an entire shift or even part of a meal-time shift during a holiday weekend. One person I know who falls into this category, who has also been hearing lots of quiet in the breakroom about the caucus, suggested that it could well be that the management will be as numerous as the workers at these sites. I think thats very unlikely but it again suggests that there may be less enthusiasm among the rank & file than we've been led to believe.

Another factor -- an outbreak of flu in Las Vegas. Several people have told me today of flu-induced absences at their workplace. Again I'm not suggesting an epidemic and voters who don't vote at the last minute due to health is an ordinary part of every election, but we're unlikely to have the NV equivalent of NH's 60-degree sunny weather on primary day.

Check out Josh Marshall to see the Clinton contrast flyer that I wrote about a few days ago. In the mail today, the second AFSCME mailer in a row that suggests that "For Hillary, its personal." And she had bi-lingual door lit dropped yesterday, which in my bi-lingual neighborhood can be useful in reaching Spanish language households, but can also alienate older white voters. Also, just got yet another Clinton voter ID call; this one from an AFSCME-funded phone bank in Indiana. (I asked the caller if he was a member and he said, no he worked for the calling center.) Thats the third or fourth call center voter ID call for Clinton we've gotten in the last 48 hours. Perhaps a sign that she will be able to turn out her soft supporters, after all?

If Obama is making similar efforts, I have to say that I don't see them in my neighborhood. I was asked today by an Edwards volunteer in from out of state, who had been in Iowa, if UNLV students would  be likely to vote, clearly concerned about a repeat of the Iowa wave. I think its important to keep in mind that UNLV is a commuter school, whose student body is largely non-residential and closely reflects the demographics of the city as a whole. IN other words, no "student vote" to speak of. Same for the larger College of Southern Nevada, the community college that co-hosted last night's debate.

Big media day for Edwards today. He was on MSNBC early, in Reno for a town-hall and is as I write beginning a series of events back down here in LV, culminating in a townhall at the Carpenter's Hall. This event is conflicting with the first-ever joint meeting of all Clark County democratic clubs at the monthly $5 Democratic Spaghetti Dinner at the (more centrally located) ITalian-American Social Club. I have to confess I'm disappointed to be missing what will certainly be a $5 spaghetti dinner to remember.

Big voter contact day and surrogate appearances across the Valley. Every time I talk another voter into supporting Edwards -- and that policy book is terrific; if you are in a state that has an upcoming primary, print it off the website and distribute it as widely as you can -- I feel a tinge of regret that there's simply not enough time and resources to get the message to enough people. All the more reason its so inspiring to see the dedication and resolve of the campaign workers and some of the volunteers.

Hopefully I'll have time before Saturday to post the closing argument I'm making to all the undecideds I know. Suggestions are welcome in the comments thread.