MyDD :: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat

NV Poll: 3-way dead heat

by desmoulins, Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 11:27:12 AM EST

I'm still very skeptical that anyone knows who will turnout Saturday so horse-race polling is not really worth the effort, but its breaking news nonetheless.

Reno Gazette-Journal poll shows a three-way dead heat

Obama 32
Clinton 30
Edwards 27

Its done by Research 2000, which is the regular, DC-based firm, that the RGJ hires to do its polling, so they have experience in the state. However, I'm still not sure anyone can figure out what a "likely caucus-goer" is.

Still, this confirms to me that a) Obama has gotten a big media hit out of the endorsements, which may or may not translate into votes on Saturday (more on turnout in a future posting) and b) Edwards still enjoys a high degree of support, though how well that will translate into delegates given the shoestring budget is hard to predict.

Tags: Nevada caucus, polls, Clinton, Obama, Edwards (all tags)

Permalink :: 89 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 1)

It's on!

by dmc2 on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 11:30:54 AM EST

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

This JUST IN from Jon Ralston of Nevada:

CLARK COUNTY DEMOCRATIC PARTY CHAIRMAN COMES OUT AGAINST STATE PARTY IN LAWSUIT!!

Text of the email reads:

Yes, you read that right. John Hunt says at-large precincts threaten integrity of vote and he called Culinary boss D. Taylor a "bully" as he sat next to him on "Face to Face." Hunt was on central committee when plan was adopted last March and has been county chairman for months, but says he just learned of unfair delegate apportionment. He and Taylor went at it for a while. It airs tonight.

More later....

by world dictator on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 01:01:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

The time for this suit was six months ago, when the decision was made. Now it just looks like sour grapes.

by dmc2 on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 02:17:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

They were probably hoping that they could come to a resolution without filing a lawsuit. Its not uncommon for two sides to argue for months at a time only to fail to meet an agreement and instead file suit

by world dictator on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 02:20:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 4)

That seems awful good for Edwards, being that close. We'd be in a whole different race if he'd won Iowa.

by Jerome Armstrong on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 11:30:55 AM EST

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 1)

I'd be saying for months that if we won Iowa, we would win this state by more than 10 points. His strong close in Iowa finally got him into the media here, and this morning he's beginning what the campaign calls a "media blitz".

This should help fend off what I had feared would be a local media narrative that he has no chance. It'll also help consolidate wavering supporters who might wonder if he has a chance to win.

But it'll be a steep hill to match that result on Saturday. Still, I'm doing all I can in the Democratic heartland.

by desmoulins on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 11:36:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary's Voter Suppression Efforts (none / 0)

could hurt Edwards too. Let's hope her scheme to disenfranchise thousands of working caucus goers fails.

by nerdoff on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 11:51:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary's Voter Suppression Efforts (none / 0)

Disenfranchise? Ha, ha, ha. The entire caucus disenfranchises the voters. So don't give me this bull. How would you like it if you had to publicly announce your support for a candidate in front of your boss?

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 03:17:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

Jumpin' HuckaBees Jerome! Don't go all Kos or Bowers on us!

This thing is not only close it's changing my perception of just who is progressive here in the 'sphere. When Stoller and Bowers refuse to discuss any candidates other than Senator's Cackle and Compromise....when Kos backs the Liebercrat Obama....shit what the fuck is going on?

As Edwards fights on I'm with him as is...wait for it....every single progressive I talk to in CA every one, nobody wants Obama or Clinton.

Edwards/Edwards 08!

by Pericles on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 12:24:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

several people close to me who support Edwards would move to Clinton if they had to make that choice. I am the only Clinton supporter in my family and close friends. However almost half of all the other democrats I know support her.
In fact several people at church yesterday told me they are voting for her not just because they think she is a good candidate but because she is a woman. So I doubt either of us can really judge anything on personal experience.

ABO... Anybody but Obama. I LIKE the democratic party.

by MollieBradford on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 02:33:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

I was at a social party Saturday night in SoCal where the host and hostess are both Obama activists. They passed out paper ballots for a straw poll and while Obama won, it was 21-19-9 over HRC & JRE.

If those numbers hold up, California is going to go for Hillary big time. This was an upper-middle class, primarily white (no Latino) group of people, a great demographic for Obama.

My host had an interesting observation. He thinks that the less time on the ground Obama has in a state, the less well he will do. Iowa he was organizing for months. Listening between the lines, I don't think he expects Obama to do well on Super Tuesday.

Fwiw, he and his mid-20's daughter are in Nevada now working for the caucuses.

by InigoMontoya on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:19:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

it took a long time (none / 0)

for Obama to start catching on in Iowa. Even for a month or two after he was up on tv, his numbers weren't moving much.

I believe that, among other things, lulled the Edwards and Clinton campaigns into a false sense of security regarding Obama's potential in Iowa.

John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."

by desmoinesdem on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:31:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: it took a long time (none / 0)

Well, DMD, for the longest time I really thought that Iowa was a presumptive win for Edwards.

I tend to dislike caucuses because a well-organized candidate can do well in a low-volume contest, e.g., Obama and the youth vote. (I don't think the latter is sustainable in high-volume contests like large-state primaries and the general election.)

by InigoMontoya on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 09:24:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 1)

I'd love to see it; a fine upset it would be.

by Jerome Armstrong on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 02:43:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

I'd jump from the top of the Luxor if Edwards is within even ten points of second.

That poll is clearly bad. Edwards is nowhere NEAR the top.

McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.

by jgarcia on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 12:32:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 2)

Based on what? Other polls?

Don't take this personally jg but I'm spending most of the week trying to get you splattered on the Strip sidwalk.

by desmoulins on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 12:38:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 1)

lol

by StrongDem08 on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 01:02:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

You truly think Edwards CAN be at 27 pts? Please.

I just wish people would stop clouding their judgment with this obsessive (and, in some cases, unhealthy) delusion that Edwards is doing anything close to doing well enough in this race to win or even come close.

CNN or Rasumussen has him at 11 nationwide.

No way he's tripling that in NV. I'd bet my house on it.

McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.

by jgarcia on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 01:38:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You're just worried (2.00 / 1)

He'll do well enough that you'll have to change your choice of candidate AGAIN.

by Shawn on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 01:43:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You're just worried (2.00 / 1)

haha, that's funny. I guess I had that coming!

McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.

by jgarcia on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 02:04:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 1)

When you look at NH- he actually only performed 3 or 4 pt below what he had been polling in the state the previous week, and along the lines of what he had been polling throughtout - and actually a little higher since during the summer he was at 11 or 12. The only surprise of NH was Clinton- not Edwards. You do yourself a disservice with those hyperbole.

For the record, I don't know what's happening in NV. I admit to that. You should too. If NH has taught us anything, it's that we can't be certain of our assumptions.

by bruh21 on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 12:48:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

I have oceanfront property in Las Vegas if Edwards is really ar 27. C'mon.

This diehardnest for Edwards from some people is, just, er, uh, WEIRD.

McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.

by jgarcia on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 01:35:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 1)

I would love to know how telling you not to engage in hyperbole indicates that I think I know what will happen there any more than what the polls tell me. What I find from several of you isn't analysis so much as attitude. It's not really useful info to here y ou say 'this is how I feel.' My response that as before is so what? give me more than how it make syou feel.

by bruh21 on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 01:46:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 1)

Bro, its a poll. I didn't do it. I just reported .

by desmoulins on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 01:47:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

don't think i am unduly upset at some poll. i just found it funny. i sort of heard a collective online "celebration" from the Edwards partisans to justify their sticking with him.

IMO, the Edwards people sticking with Edwards are, in the long run, going to possibly (and ironically) ensure a Hillary nomination.

But, that's an opinion. But I won't hesistate to state that I'd love to see the JE folks get behind Obama as a means to thwart a Clinton II.

McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.

by jgarcia on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 02:25:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

when Obama demonstrates (2.00 / 6)

that he would run and govern as a progressive, then he may get more support from Edwards backers.

I am not convinced that he would do anything to advance a progressive agenda, even if he wins. He won't have a mandate for progressive change after running as Mr. post-partisan rock star.

John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."

by desmoinesdem on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 03:03:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: when Obama demonstrates (none / 0)

You and I are on the same page here. I often look to your opinion as an opinion here that I respect and your positions are always principled.

I find Obama, shall I say, at the very least, troubling. My big fear is that he will sell progressives down the river for political expediency once elected.

But I fin myself at the age of 33 wanting to roll the dice and see if perhaps he turns out to be to the Left of Clinton. With Clinton, I see mark Penn and Terry MCauliffe and just don't want to see that. I'm with JE on the issues but he just didn't connect enough. And I'd hate to see his supporters write off Obama who MAY be just what we need.

McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.

by jgarcia on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 08:37:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 1)

or shorter version of me: stop projecting. you are the one not looking at this dispassionately. 2 post now, nothing but hyperbole.

by bruh21 on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 01:48:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

I am actually the opposite of what you are referring to. I base very liitle on feelings. I look at the writing on the wall.

One poll has JE at 27%. He's just not attaracting fore for whatever reason. And if he was, that'd be great, but he's not.

Also, my distaste fro Hillary reflects Bill's true record as president. I am judging her on numbers and what has occurred. Not by some silly 2008 rhetoric.

Same for the other candidates.

McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.

by jgarcia on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 02:07:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 2)

Objectivity would lead you to say you have no idea what's going to occur rather than make exaggerated statements as you did above. That's the emotions I am referring to. You will note that I never make a claim that I am positive of anything. Indeed , my only point is that what this says is the certainty may not be so clear. Like with NH and everyone was so sure that Obama wuold win- I will say like I said there- I have no clue. I also am certain that anyone who uses hyperbole is about in the same boat as me.

by bruh21 on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 02:54:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

That's a false choice. What you are saying is that to be truly objective, you cannot make a prediction or even have any expectations?

Hmmm, so I guess Kucinich may very well win, then? Because with that logic, we never know until the day of voting.

Everyone is parrotting what you are saying vis-a-vis NH. But that NH primary was very very unique and rather strange. To make that the standard is discounting 99% of other NH primary results that were polled/predicted almost exactly the nigiht before.

Remeber, she cried the day before. You can never truly predict scandals, meltdowns, etc. You just try to analyze the bets you can.

I'm sorry, but anyone who thinks JE even has a shot at the nomination at this point has a hard time being taken seriously (not referring to you personally, just in general) and I think you yourself know it ain't happening.

McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.

by jgarcia on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 03:03:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

you can't... (2.00 / 1)

jump off of the top of the Luxor, it's a pyramid. You could slide down the side of it though.

If this were a primary, Edwards might get close but in a caucus it's going to be tough. Edwards might do a respectable third in Clark and Washoe Counties but he is probably going to get slaughtered in the disproportionate delegate weighted rurals (which are different from rural Iowa) which Obama and Clinton (for her, at least in Pahrump) haved worked hard.

Our Moment Is Now

by mboehm on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 02:19:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: you can't... (none / 0)

The Luxor also has two towers of about 30 stories each. He could end up an ugly stain on the back parking lot if things go our way.

by desmoulins on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 12:44:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

she's going to get some delegates out of Michigan and he isn't going to get any

That's not much commitment. The Luxor's walls descend at about a 40° angle so you'd just slide gently down to the ground. Now if you'd threaten to jump off the Bellagio...

Read Brian's Utah Weblog

by Brian Watkins on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 12:39:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I'll say this (2.00 / 1)

If Edwards pulls a win from NV... this probably becomes an impossible to predict race.

To be honest, now heavily invested in the ABC camp, I'd be nearly as happy with an Edwards win (so long as Obama is 2nd) as an Obama win.

Right now - if I could get a guarantee that Edwards + Obama = > 50% of the delegates, but no one has a 50+ count -- I'd take it in a heartbeat... let Obama and Edwards arm wrestle, flip a coin, have a footrace, whatever.

by zonk on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 01:17:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

For a candidate who has spent years running in Iowa not to do better does not argur well for Edwards. The populism he continues to represent is pure Democratic politics, but the public is not listening. Corporate America has captured the public mind and is taking liberal and conservative supporters of corportism alike for a ride.

Click on Peace, Propaganda, & The Promised Land and learn the truth about the I/P conflict.

by shergald on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 02:36:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

Wow! This looks good for Edwards also.

Give more support at:

John Edwards 08
http://edwards.com

Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 11:31:13 AM EST

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 1)

That not the Edwards website

It's www.johnedwards.com

by dbeard115 on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 03:49:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

OOPS!!!!

I made a big mistake! :)

Yes... it is http://johnedwards.com

Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:29:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

No wonder that Clinton's teacher's union want to restrict at large caucuses in Las Vegas.

They know this is a tight race.

by BDM on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 11:33:17 AM EST

Re: 'Hillary's teacher union' (none / 0)

When did the endorse her?

by del on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:08:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 1)

Has this firm done any polling before?

I realise Nevada polling has been too sparse for any meaningful trendlines to form, but I seem to recall Clinton has tended to get about 45% on average, with both Obama and Edward around 15-20%.

The growth in Obama's numbers doesn't surprise me as Clinton's national lead was never going to remain so large and union endorsements helped, but I'm not sure where the boost for Edwards could be coming from, as his national Iowa boost was only around 5%.

Mind you, I don't expect polling to be right on target for this race. It's just too much of an unknown.

Visit Forgotten Countries, my new foreign policy-based blog

by Englishlefty on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 11:36:22 AM EST

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 1)

Polls have probably changed due to likely caucusgoers. Before it was difficult to know who was going, now with just a few days left most people know if they're going or not. I'm guessing Edwards supporters are the most likely to go in a likely low turnout race.

by Progressive America on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 11:42:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

I'm not buying it. We'll see on caucus day. I wouldn't take to heart these polls. Remember NH.

by lonnette33 on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 11:36:28 AM EST

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

I'm proabably biased, but the Edwards' numbers make no sense to me. It will be interesting to see the specifics in this poll to see if it makes any sense.

by StrongDem08 on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 11:40:05 AM EST

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

Towards what strongdemoheight?

by inexile on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 02:05:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

Pro HRC.

by StrongDem08 on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 02:49:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 2)

So it's a three-way push. Sounds about right to me. Anyone that says they have a good read on this one is lying, in my opinion. Should be exciting.

by HSTruman on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 11:40:34 AM EST

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 2)

I don't think the MSM realizes the support Edwards still has. Though I have to admit I'm shocked at how close NV is I would have figured the Culinary Union would make the margin much wider for Obama. It is interesting and a amall flicker of hope for this Edwards supporter.

TrumanDem

Truman's Conscience

by DuvalDem on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 11:50:41 AM EST

Re: MSM & Edwards support (2.00 / 1)

It's possible MSM doesn't realize his remaining support. More like they are trying to kill it. And I am not even an Edwards supporter.

by del on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:11:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Shoestring budget. (none / 0)

Given the restrictions that Edwards faces on campaign spending, both state by state and overall spending, I am not sure that he has a problem yet with money. Of course, he could violate the spending prohibitions and then pay a fine like many candidates have done in the past. I think that the Edwards camp is being a lot more careful with budgeting than Clinton and Obama. I don't know how much further he has to go before hitting his limit but I believe he has raised around $50 million counting the public financing he has borrowed against. The overall spending limit is $56 million although I understand there are expenses that don't count against it. My hope is that Edwards will stay in all the way and get at least 15% of the delegates overall. For the fun of it I want to see a final tally of delegates where no candidate gets 50% before the convention.

by msstaley on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 11:51:51 AM EST

Re: Shoestring budget. (none / 0)

The only rationale reason I see Edwards staying in is that he is running for Obama's VP slot.

by StrongDem08 on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 01:05:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Shoestring budget. (none / 0)

Oh i see biased towards, well not edwards, Obama? or is it Clinton, or Ron Paul?

by inexile on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 02:06:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Shoestring budget. (none / 0)

HRC.

by StrongDem08 on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 02:49:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Edwards Rationale for Continuing (none / 0)

Not much up on politics eh? If neither Clinton nor Obama have enough delegates for a 1st ballot victory it give Edwards some leverage. Even when a candidate does get the outright victory someone who has enough delegates can strongly influence the party platform. Not good enough? How about in 1984 when Jesse Jackson got around 400 delegates and was able to change the way the Democratic party allocated delegates? No more winner take all primaries or caucuses due to Jesse, he is the one who gave us the 15% threshold for delegates. Jesse had received 21% of the vote but only got 8% of the delegates. Could it be that Edwards isn't ready to throw in the towel because he might still have a shot at the Presidency? Even if he does decide he won't be the nominee why would he not want a seat at the table, particularly when no one else is speaking up for the people he speaks for?

by msstaley on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 01:59:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

maybe... (none / 0)

This has something to do with it?

Political Leaders, Campaign Officials, Celebrities in Nevada for Geared Up Edwards Campaign on Final Weekend Before Caucus
http://www.johnedwards.com/nevada/headli nes/20080111-final-weekend/

Also, the Steel Workers Union is in NV in force. They are working their butts off for Edwards in NV.

Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 11:54:25 AM EST

Re: maybe... (2.00 / 1)

Yes they are. God bless em for it.

by desmoulins on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 11:56:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

What if we had the same finish that we had in Iowa? How would the Clinton campaign spin that?

A great democracy must be progressive or it will soon cease to be a great democracy. - Teddy Roosevelt

by minvis on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 12:02:14 PM EST

Spin (2.00 / 2)

I think that either of these:

Clinton
Edwards
Obama

Obama
Edwards
Clinton

would mean the media would have to start talking about Edwards again. They wouldn't have a choice.

BlueNC - Progressive NC Politics

by Robert P on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 12:29:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Spin (2.00 / 2)

If Edwards beats his NH score of 17%, against the huge media campaigns Obama and Clinton are waging here, I think they'll have to pay attention.

by desmoulins on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 12:31:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Spin (2.00 / 1)

Its a three way tie, so of course, I hope for this:

Edwards
Obama
Clinton

I hope for a progressive mandate for change. CNN paired all the democratic party candidates against each Republican candidate possibles, Edwards is still the only one that beats all Republicans, and beats them by a large margin. JRE beats Huckaby 60% to 35%. Now that would be a mandate for change.

I'm all about the coat tails.

by inexile on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 02:38:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 1)

It is possible that several issues may play out in NV.

Most of them involve the current back and forth between the Clinton and Obama camps. There could easily be a response both here and elsewhere
that Edwards would be the least divisive candidate.
recent Clinton
http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2008/jan 11/campaigning-here-clinton-goes-over-c ulinarys-head

recent Obama
http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2008/jan 14/obama-gloves-off

Remember the western states are traditionally conservitive, although that is rapidly changing due to the influx of new residents.

The economy is probably the biggest issue there now.
A little info on that.
http://www.reviewjournal.com/news/housin g/

Note..NV has not really been polled since early Dec.

http://www.pollster.com/08-NV-Dem-Pres-P rimary.php

"If you want to end war and stuff, you gotta sing loud"...Arlo Guthrie

by nogo war on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 12:10:11 PM EST

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 2)

This same polling firm had this race in November as:

Clinton: 45%
Obama: 20%
Edwards: 12%

So that's a change of Edwards +15, Obama +12 and Clinton -15. That's a hell of big change. Who knows if it's right, but the Clinton campaign certainly doesn't want the narrative out there that they've dropped 15 points in the past two months.

A great democracy must be progressive or it will soon cease to be a great democracy. - Teddy Roosevelt

by minvis on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 12:15:15 PM EST

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

If you look at the raw numbers from this poll, the change is very small.

They just changed their likely voter algorithm.

by kristoph on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 02:24:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

Tomorrow's debate will be key. If Edwards spikes and takes second-place, it'll be a huge story that'll provide key momentum going into South Carolina.

by blueflorida on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 12:15:22 PM EST

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

Accordingly, John Edwards needs to get his _ss to Nevada, ASAP.

by blueflorida on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 12:16:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 2)

He's on all the news programs today and begins a 3-day statewide tour tomorrow. Perfect timing because this poll will now force reporters to cover his appearances seriously instead of writing snide stories about how he's out of contention.

by desmoulins on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 12:20:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 2)

Good point. Timing is everything, his 3-day road trip will coincide with these poll results. How much do you want to bet that Survey USA or some other media hack-shop will come out with an anti-Edwards poll by tonight.

BlueNC - Progressive NC Politics

by Robert P on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 12:30:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

He will likely continue his tactic of ganging up on HRC with Obama, whih will only casue him to lose votes. Hope he learns from the NH debate.

by StrongDem08 on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 01:09:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I think Hillary still takes it (none / 0)

Like in New Hampshire, Hillary will have a significant unwavering group of support in Nevada. I think like in New Hampshire she can help close Nevada with a strong debate performance and strong last minute campaign rallies.

by Christopher Lib on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 12:29:02 PM EST

Re: I think Hillary still takes it (2.00 / 1)

I personally think NV is all about the GOTV effort. No one is really leading.

by kristoph on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 02:31:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

turnout (2.00 / 1)

Thats exactly right. I'm going to try to do a diary on that tonight.

by desmoulins on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 02:41:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 1)

It should be added that all the unions that have backed Edwards, including the Carpenters, the Nevada CWA and the Steelworkers are still working the state. If Obama and Clinton go Gephardt/Dean on each other it might give Edwards an opening. One can hope at least.

by alexmhogan on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 12:59:57 PM EST

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 1)

I wonder if UNITE-HERE is having any regrets about their endorsement, with Edwards polling high as he did.

by alexmhogan on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 01:04:22 PM EST

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 2)

I don't like caucuses to begin with. It lacks privacy. And it lacks flexibility in time. And then you have to sit there and take orders and be hereded, like in an airport.

I am all for Unions and Union solidarity, but I think it would be difficult for a member to go against their Union when the leaders are standing there trying to get them to their side of the room.

In New York we vote by machines and the voting is from early in the morning to late at night. It is completely private. I even hate that my donations to candidates are listed on the internet. People in New York like their privacy.

by maxstar on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 01:05:36 PM EST

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 1)

If all 3 end up within 6 points top to bottom it is another draw for delegated

by sndeak on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 01:07:45 PM EST

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 1)

If all 3 end up within 6 points, its a massive upset victory for Edwards.

by desmoulins on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 01:12:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

Man that is wishful thinking. You think the media will report that? You think the media wants a 3 person narrtivae rather than 2? Me thinks not. Without a win, Edwards is a footnote.

by StrongDem08 on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 01:14:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 1)

Wow, so many posts, so little time, and all desperately attempting to slam Edwards. So strong dem is it a HRC need or a Ron Paul love affair?

by inexile on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 02:43:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

I'm sorry, but I support people with realistic shots. So that would excludes Ron Paul and JRE. Just the facts ma'am.

by StrongDem08 on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 02:51:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (none / 0)

You think the media will report that?

Even with a win, JRE will be a footnote. If neither Obama or Hillary win, the media will just go on and on about how the real winner is John McCain.

Even in first place, JRE will be ignored by the media because he never won over the media. Even if he raised $100 million and won Iowa he was never viable because free news media is worth $10 billion in the national primary and news media doesn't care about Edwards.

Read Brian's Utah Weblog

by Brian Watkins on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 12:42:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Teachers Call Out Clinton Politics (none / 0)

President

Nevada State Education Association

3511 East Harmon Avenue

Las Vegas, NV 89121

Dear President Warne:

As teachers in Nevada, and members of the Nevada State Education Association, we are deeply dismayed that our union is trying to stop our students' parents from caucusing on Saturday. We urge them in the strongest terms to drop this lawsuit immediately.

Many of our students are Hispanic Americans and come from low-income families. Their parents are construction workers, McDonald's employees, and other shift workers on the strip, who work around the clock, and won't have time to travel to their caucus locations on Saturday. That's why the state Democratic committee set up nine at-large precinct locations on the strip - to provide nearby caucus locations for Nevadans who otherwise wouldn't be able to caucus.

These at-large locations were approved back in March of 2007, and no one raised any concerns about them for nearly a year. But now, our union is filing a lawsuit making the baseless charge that these at-large caucus locations are discriminatory, when the fact is they were set up to make sure as many Nevadans could caucus as possible.

This lawsuit is all about politics. It's widely known that many of our union's top officials support Senator Clinton and now that the Culinary Workers Union has endorsed Senator Obama, they're using our union to stop Nevadans from caucusing for Senator Obama.

We never thought our union and Senator Clinton would put politics ahead of what's right for our students, but that's exactly what they're doing. As teachers, and proud Democrats, we hope they will drop this undemocratic lawsuit and help all Nevadans caucus, no matter which candidate they support.

Sincerely,

Tamara Anderson, Elementary School Counselor

Monica Baldwin, 3rd grade teacher

Jodi Brant, Government teacher for 12th graders

Mari Calderon, Kindergarten teacher

Jessica Cohn, 3rd grade teacher

Ketica Guter, 3rd grade teacher

Sarah Irby, Kindergarten teacher

Padmini Jambulapati, 7th and 8th grade teacher

Tracy Kamhi, 10th, 11th, and 12th grade teacher

Jennifer Kehs, 4th grade teacher

Clara Munk, Primary Reading teacher

Matthew O'Keefe, 4th grade teacher

Frances Rabbitt, Special Education teacher

Chantae Readye, 5th grade teacher

Jessica Tolliver, 1st grade teacher

by aiko on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 02:25:58 PM EST

liar (1.00 / 2)

they said nothing about Clinton. She is not behind this. You are as skanky as your candidate Obama.

ABO... Anybody but Obama. I LIKE the democratic party.

by MollieBradford on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 02:50:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: liar (2.00 / 1)

"This lawsuit is all about politics. It's widely known that many of our union's top officials support Senator Clinton and now that the Culinary Workers Union has endorsed Senator Obama, they're using our union to stop Nevadans from caucusing for Senator Obama."

by aiko on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 03:30:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 1)

Obama is skanky? What cant we have a civil discussion, why does it have to dissolve into THIS?

by AC4508 on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 03:20:00 PM EST

Trolls post here (2.00 / 1)

People who post things like "skanky" about Democrats is not a Democrat, and never was. If they want to post here, thats OK and now we know why, to troll and bring up fights, always remeber, this is a public forum and it attracts a lot of RWNJ's dont be pulled into a slaging match.

That poster is not representative of the Democratic Party in any way, nor any progressive either.

by inexile on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 05:44:20 PM EST

Edwards in Nevada (none / 0)

EDWARDS CAMP: STILL IN THE HUNT
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2 008/01/14/577230.aspx

Edwards camp: Still in the hunt
Posted: Monday, January 14, 2008 2:41 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: 2008, Edwards

From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller
PAWLEYS ISLAND, SC -- The Edwards campaign doesn't believe this race is over just yet.

Edwards' campaign manager, former Michigan Rep. David Bonior (D), senior advisers Joe Trippi and Jonathan Prince, and communication director Chris Kofinis emphasized that the race for the Democratic nomination still involves three candidates. They followed up with a poll from the Reno Gazette-Journal that shows Edwards polling competitively in Nevada, trailing Obama by five points and Clinton by just three. Bonior said that Edwards has 75 new staffers on the ground in Nevada brought in from the earlier caucus state of Iowa.

"What I know is that we're very well-organized," Edwards told reporters covering his town hall here in South Carolina. "We've got people there who know what they're doing. They moved there from Iowa, and I think most importantly my message of standing up for the middle class against entrenched moneyed interests and fighting for the middle class is one that'll work. It'll work in Nevada, and I think a lot of Nevada caucus-goers haven't quite heard it yet, and I think when they hear it -- and they will tomorrow night -- we stand a good chance."

Also on the call, Bonior announced Edwards' America Rising Coast-to-Coast tour with stops later this week in four major Feb. 5 primary states: California, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Missouri.

Meanwhile, the candidate himself is finishing up a tour of his home state of South Carolina. Edwards came directly to South Carolina after Tuesday's New Hampshire primary and will be in Nevada tomorrow, where he has a town hall at noon in Las Vegas and will participate in MSNBC's debate that evening.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2 008/01/14/577230.aspx

Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 05:52:24 PM EST

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 0)

My sense is it's a bad poll. Anything that strays too far from the long term status of the race is a bad Democratic poll in '08, IMO.

I'm a Nevadan for 20+ years and it's a fairly easy state to forecast. In '06 there were blatantly poor polls at times, the ones indicating Jack Carter was closer to John Ensign than Dina Titus to Jim Gibbons. Anyone who knew a damn thing about Nevada politics realized the gov race would be tight and the senate race was never in play, but many polls tried to pretend otherwise. I was ripped on a few sites for emphasizing the occasional polls showing Carter close were nonsense, but it turned out to be a 14 point race, the logical margin.

Obviously a caucus is a different animal. I'm not as certain as '06 but my instinct is Clinton leads narrowly and Edwards is well back in third.

by Gary Kilbride on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 07:01:44 PM EST

Re: NV Poll: 3-way dead heat (2.00 / 0)

Gary, you were definitely right throughout the fall of 06 and I agreed with you then. I think you may be right this time. However, whats different is not only that its a caucus but that its a national campaign so that indicators of strength in a statewide race, like yard signs, are not necessarily as relevant here. That said, if I had to bet I wouldn't put a lot down but I'd go with the order you suggest.

by desmoulins on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 09:15:17 PM EST
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